Reasonable Inference
[Reasonable Inference — As to intent to influence outcome] CTCL grant conditions required recipient cities to implement CTCL’s Wisconsin Safe Voting Plan and report on spending; failure to comply triggered full clawback. The WILL statistical analysis found CTCL grants produced an estimated Biden vote advantage of approximately 41 votes per municipality on average, with a potential statewide impact exceeding Wisconsin’s certified margin of victory. These facts, taken together, are consistent with the inference that the grant structure was designed to influence electoral outcomes in favor of Democratic candidates. This finding is classified as a Reasonable Inference: the grant conditions and statistical disparity are established facts; the intent attribution is an inference drawn from the totality of the documented pattern.
Citations
Wisconsin Institute for Law & Liberty (WILL), “Finger on the Scale” (2021) (regression analysis: CTCL grants estimated to produce ~41 additional Biden votes per municipality; statistically significant at p<0.01; no significant effect for Trump turnout), available at: https://will-law.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/WillLawFINGER-ON-THE-SCALE.6.pdf.
Center for Tech and Civic Life, Wisconsin Safe Voting Plan 2020 (grant proposal specifying the four programmatic areas cities were required to implement), available at: https://www.techandciviclife.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Approved-Wisconsin-Safe-Voting-Plan-2020.pdf.
WEC Complaint (Final Draft), ¶74–98 (documenting CTCL partner NVAHI’s operational activities in Green Bay, including Spitzer-Rubenstein’s election night control and the sub-grant made without required prior CTCL approval), available at: https://fox11digital.com/PDFs/WEC-Complaint-FINAL-Draft-4.pdf.
FINGER ON THE SCALE: Examining Private Funding of Elections in Wisconsin: https://will-law.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/WillLawFINGER-ON-THE-SCALE.6.pdf | Wisconsin Institute for Law & Liberty
Wisconsin Safe Voting Plan 2020: https://www.techandciviclife.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Approved-Wisconsin-Safe-Voting-Plan-2020.pdf | Center for Tech and Civic Life
InfluenceWatch, “Green Bay 2020 Election Emails,” Nov. 2021 (CTCL email records showing grant implementation coordination among CTCL, Elections Group, NVAHI/Spitzer-Rubenstein, and City of Green Bay), available at: https://www.influencewatch.org/app/uploads/2021/11/green-bay-ctcl-csme-2020-election-emails.pdf.