Reasonable Inference
[Reasonable Inference – Court decision rested on incorrect factual predicate] In Ward v. Jackson, No. CV-20-0343-AP/EL (Ariz. Dec. 8, 2020), the Arizona Supreme Court rejected a challenge to the 2020 presidential election results in which the central dispute concerned the accuracy of ballot duplication — a process in which damaged or defective ballots are reproduced by election workers, with the duplicate substituted for the original in tabulation. A.R.S. § 16-621(A). The court’s denial of relief rested on a sample review of 1,626 out of 27,869 duplicate ballots — approximately 5.8% of the duplicate ballot universe — which produced nine identified errors and an error rate of 0.37%–0.55%. The petitioner’s request for expanded inspection of 2,500 additional ballots was denied. The court used its own qualifying language — “fraud, if present” — without having examined the full population.
Citations
Arizona Supreme Court Decision Order, CV-20-0343-AP/EL: https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/20/20-809/163521/20201211121632424_12-11-20%20Appendix%20Ward%20v%20Jackson.pdf | US Supreme Court
Arizona Judicial Branch Case Summary: https://www.azcourts.gov/newsandinfo/High-Profile-Case-Update/CV-20-0343 | Arizona Judicial Branch
Arizona Audit Report Summary, “The hand count done by Maricopa County was such a small sample size that its margin of error was more than twice the amount of the margin of victory. It is extremely misleading to suggest this is equivalent or just as accurate as a full hand count. The hand count only counted 5,200 of the 2,089,563 ballots. This equates to roughly 1/4 th of a percentage point of the total ballots. With this small sample size there would be a 1.357% margin of error to achieve a 95% confidence in the election results. This means that if the ballots were truly chosen randomly, then this hand count could be off by over 28,000 ballots. If the ballots were not chosen randomly then the counts could be off by even more”: https://lvtp.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/AZ-Audit-Summary-09.27.21.pdf Cyber Ninjas Response to Maricopa County: https://www.scribd.com/document/534037094/Cyber-Ninjas-Response-Maricopa-County-Analysis-of-Senate-Report-2 | Scribd